Management and Business

John Ottersbach Info I-303 Organizational Informatics June 17, 2009 Project # 4 This is the project report from evaluating the AgCredit mini-case (Textbook pages 131-134) 1. Synopsis This case focuses on an agriculture credit and loan company whose core competency is based around its customer knowledge. The organization’s IT structure and function does not suit the business well. The current setup is not enterprise architecture and staff issues are rampant. There has been a lot of preparatory work done in analyzing the situation and a new team was formed to chart a course of action to transform IT.With much of the information gathering completed, the team now must convince the business leadership of the changes and be brought on board. Communicating the goals and future plans to involve the business will be vital for the company’s IT to become effective. 2. Key Issues 1. The company’s executives are very busy with day to day operations and new initiatives. IT com petence has slipped over time and the structure was never aligned with organizational vision. 2. Although some backend tinkering has made company wide information accessible in some cases, the current systems are not compatible and interaction between them is poor. . IT does not have credibility within the lines of business. This is a know shortcoming and will be addressed in the reorganization of IT. 4. Business processes are not understood by IT staff and often the business itself lacks a thorough gasp on their processes. The interconnections of the processes are unclear to both sides of the organization also. 5. The divisions do not understand their role within the organization and they must figure out how they should support the enterprise. Aligning their individual goals with strategic drivers will need to be done.There are four business divisions within AgCredit. 6. The company’s strategic drivers are continuous growth, expanse of customer relationships, ability to spen d more time with the customers, ability to cross-sell services, and provide a consistent experience to the customer. 7. A CIO position was created to align IT and the business and to guide the IT transformation. The new CIO has run a successful campaign with e-business and comes to the position with fresh eyes, but a lack of formal technical experience. He is comfortable utilizing contractors and taking in multiple points of view. 8.No IT governance or architecture is currently in place. Rather a divisional structure has existed and enterprise vision is shallow. IT decisions are made to fulfill short-term needs and initiatives. IT function is viewed as a support service for the business. 9. Some of the IT staffing issues are: low morale, high job ambiguity, unqualified staff filling positions, technical skills lacking in some areas, no senior IT manager positions, and many unfilled job roles. Part of retooling the IT architecture must be to sort out these staffing needs. 10. An appl ication-centric attitude rules the company.This has led to four separate databases, one per division, and huge data untidiness and redundancy. 11. An SOA approach has been suggested based on organizational needs, to transform IT. Those needs include integrating technologies and platforms without replacement. Vendor choices will have to be narrowed and an approval process put in place backed with execution metrics and processes. 12. The next steps will be consolidating the customer data and strengthening its foundation. A single set of customer information is the expectation and this will also help build trust and credibility toward IT, within the organization. . Case Evaluation Strategy that was usedThis report looks at a â€Å"horizontal† slice of many interrelated issues (refer to Section 5 – later in the report – for further explanation of these issues). Mixing the details of the case with the general issues into a relevant and cogent analysis was the main co ncern and involved various methods. a. Setting the Context In order to formulate an organizational structure I role-played possible structures and looked for effective relationships. The case lent many good starting points and I just carried the ideas forward with an eye on the future. . Major Initiatives and Priorities of AgCredit After getting an idea of how the structure would look I applied knowledge from the other cases and best practices mentioned from the textbook to suggest a prioritization process for project selection. After developing textbook scenarios further for the new SOA model to test I looked at the possible outcomes and largest advantages. The recommendations are used in the answer section 4. c. Looking back Ideas for the capabilities and governance also came from the lectures, readings, and previous case work.Although the specifics are much different in that the standardization of equipment is not common between them, the cases all need better business-IT partner ships and oversight. Looking for what makes them similar and different gave a unique perspective to each case. 4. Discussion Questions The following are the answers to the discussion questions on page 134 of the textbook. Propose an organizational structure for the IT department that you feel would support the transformation of AgCredit into a processcentric organization. Recognition of business ownership will be vital to the organizational structure.Having the business sign on and join the conversation about IT and related projects will be instrumental. A steering committee will be need to be part of the approval process of all projects is needed to make sure an enterprise view is taken. The multidivisional committee will need to ensure all projects fit within a SOA framework. The CIO should be involved in the boardroom and have access to senior management, including the CEO. The CIO should hire senior management that can convey departmental and business objects and help guide IT e mployees.Account managers for each LOB that reside in the business but report to senior IT management should be installed. The entire IT staff will need to be reassessed to ensure the proper people are in the right job roles. The IT function will need to be brought in alignment with the enterprise vision. One option is to try to promote internally for vacant IT positions and insource the roles that cannot be filled. Insourcing will have the distinct advantage of training IT personnel while getting the job done as well. Outsourcing IT functions that are not core competencies can also be employed if desired.Outline a project selection process for AgCredit to ensure alignment with the enterprise business vision. As mentioned in the last question, a steering committee that represents many LOBs will need to be formed and giving decision making capabilities. The process should begin by examining how a project ties to the overall vision of the company. Next the committee members should out line how the project effects their division and could be used to meet departmental needs if possible. Additionally it will need to make sure it fits within the SOA and is not duplicated by other software nodes or current processes.If it is an enhancement or add-on to another project, communication with the end user to see potential benefits should begin. Making sure it can be modularized and standardized for the business will be vital for the organization’s architecture. Additionally making sure all project types are considered and funded through a tax upon all LOBs will be required to support SOA. How should Manley â€Å"make the case† for SOA to ensure that the executive team at AgCredit buys in? Manley will need to present the key strengths of SOA and make sure to focus on how it will support the company’s vision and goals. The transition will simplify the organization and speed up product implementation. * Current services and products will be available or m odified for usability. * It supports web services that align with continuous growth opportunities, expanded customer relationships, and ability to cross-sell between the divisions. * It will immediately offer up opportunities for the divisions both in terms of possible financial gains and stretching development dollars. * Existing services can be purchased and implemented quickly within the SOA.This increases our capabilities and ensures we stay caught up with the larger firms. In essence this can level the playing field providing valuable resources and systems. * Once the customer information is centralized, which is required for SOA, the savings from reducing database needs will be realized. * Having common processes will align the business as a whole and ensure value from increased communication and decreased uncertainty. * This kind of technology base may allow the way we work to change, for example working from home or on the road working through a VPN.What new internal IT capa bilities will have to be developed in order to create an IT department to support AgCredits future business architecture? The capabilities needed to support the SOA from the IT perspective are management tools, information management tools, Information delivery options, development cycles, and a customer service attitude toward the divisions. Role clarification will be important in setting up these capabilities. Management tools include visioning and business alignment processes, funding methods, measurement metrics and focus, and monitoring methods.Information management tools include collection activities, organize process including schemes and taxonomy, process modules to use the information, and maintenance procedures that support business functions. Development cycles must conform to SOA standards and guidelines, using compliant hardware and software to make systems that breakdown the functionality, and complaint with regulatory needs, including system proficiency in creating r eports for audit purposes. The customer service attitude will be needed to manage perceptions and keep close ties with the business.What aspects of IT governance do you think would be important in supporting this transformation? Before governance structures are formalized the enterprise and divisional vision and objectives should be outlined. With IT working alongside the business some guiding principles must be drafted up. This may involve setting up account managers within the LOB and forming a multidiscipline steering committee with considerable decision power. This steering committee should work closely with the CIO and have high level approval and corporate sponsorship.The governance system should focus on guiding the transformation process and keeping key issues in focus, such as sox and regulatory compliance. Stakeholder involvement in the steering committee will help the business and IT structures become partners and work together. It will ensure all voices are heard and con sidered in the decision making process. They should outline policy decisions that support the organization’s vision early on. 5. Issues I have Discussed I utilized the chart, Dr. Ramachandran offered, to find the connections between the subject matter we have studied and the case.My analysis follows: From Lecture 4 and the Textbook reading assignment pages 37 – 50. * In this case IT often takes a backseat to other business concerns. The CEO having to be approached on the weekend to look at IT issues shows a lack of perceived IT value. * The company has a reputation of customer knowledge and that has allowed for competitive advantage. * The CEO believes IT supports the business. This belief is reinforced with the way IT is set up to function and furthermore with its failure to meet the minimum standards of competency and credibility.The instinctual desire to outsource all of IT by Paul Manley is a good indicator of IT’s inability to deliver value to the business. * It commonly believed and accepted that IT and business are not aligned at a high level. The desire for the alignment exists and the CEO’s decision to promote a strong business head into the CIO position reflects this understanding. * IT possesses a low self worth due partly to poor organizational engagement and role ambiguity. Without high-quality, business-minded leadership the internal perspective of IT has suffered. OCBs are far less likely to occur in this weakened environment. Without a solid enterprise architecture in place IT lacks a unifying vision and single â€Å"brand†. This lack of oversight has not helped promote IT to the business. * With IT being viewed negatively at the executive level, as at the start of the case, IT is at a disadvantage when trying to return value to the organization. The increased bond between the CEO and CIO will dramatically increase a positive perspective for the IT transformation. * The competency and creditability of IT is st ill highly suspect. The new CIO has acknowledged and is addressing the deficiency.There is an understanding that it will take time and energy to change the perception of the company. This is a prerequisite to having the business units buying into and taking a chance on IT. * The structural changes of IT should address perceptual issues as well at technical ones. The SOA will ensure the business, through their active role as data owners, views IT as a partner rather than just a service for the business. * The perceptual challenge ahead will involve a lengthy temporal component, the organizations view will not shift overnight. IT will have to build confidence and show the business that it adds value.Additionally perceptions will need to be continually managed with IT’s rocky history. From Lecture 6 and the Textbook reading assignment pages 72 – 85. * A good exercise before starting the restructure or even the consolidation to a single customer service file would be to ge t with the business and develop a technology roadmap. The entire process does not need to be completed before beginning other initiatives but this will give the organization focus and set current expectations. This will involve the business greatly and will open the lines of communication for IT and business operations.Since a large part of a technology roadmap is how technology will be implemented to support the enterprise vision, strategy, and objectives this will help ensure the divisions are working toward organizational unification. * Once the enterprise and divisional vision and objectives are lined out the process can begin. Working alongside the business some guiding principles must be drafted up. This may involve setting up account managers within the LOB and forming a multidiscipline steering committee with considerable decision power. IT staffing cannot be done correctly until business needs are communicated.It will be important to make sure the guiding principles map to the vision. * The vision from the textbook would consist of: continuous growth, expanse of customer relationships, ability to spend more time with the customers, ability to cross-sell services, and provide a consistent experience to the customer. Additionally implementing an SOA environment would need to be considered in the process. * Taking an inventory should be split into two sections. The first is coming up with a classification schema, which should work well with planning the SOA objectives.The second is assigning a technology custodian which will help build credibility by increasing transparency of responsibility. * A gap analysis of the current technology to required technology will also need to be completed. This will help build the relationship to the business and show competency for IT if done well. The level of business involvement must be high so an opportunity to influence perception is created. After identifying the missing links a scan of the available technology wil l need to be undertaken. SOA design will play a vital role in deciding on which software and hardware need to be developed or purchased. In order to get from point A to point B, point B being an SOA for the company, a solid migration strategy must be created.This will affect the projects that have been put on hold within the organization and future projects as well. This will need input from the business since they will be severely impacted. The steering committee should be well established and able to make informed decisions on this type of endeavor. A governance body will need to be installed that oversees this process and its future revisions. From Lecture 7 and the Textbook reading assignment pages 98 – 126. In order to succeed in the organization vision AgCredit has an Information Management system needs to be instituted. This will be housing the single customer information file. Visioning exercises will help develop policies to support the IM. * The IM will be a great f irst step toward changing the culture to acceptance of IT function and the partnership role in the organization. A SOA will be supported by this move also and will bring the company focus together. * Shaping the culture to accept the responsibility and a steering committee’s authority will take time to develop especially with such a weak IT role in the current organization.Bring them on board will be vital to success though. With all of the expected growth and centralizing of information security policy will have to become standardized and thorough. If any of the IT functions get outsourced this move will help make the transition and usefulness operate more smoothly and efficiently. * The initial SOA will be created through a process that needs full organizational representation and support. The final acceptance will need to be at the senior level though. * Adjusting the perspective and culture toward acceptance will be instrumental to the initiatives success.Paul Manley will need to take an active role in convincing the business to sign on and support the initiative. 6. Organization Chart CEO Jim Finney CIO Paul Manley COO Steve Stewart Kate Longair Samantha Secord Dirk Schader 7. Further Issues From Lecture 2 and the Textbook reading assignment pages 14 – 25. * IT and the business are not aligned. The business is not even aware of how the different divisions come together to work for the organization. The business will have to sort itself out as well as build a partnership with IT. * They have begun to revisit the business model and are aware there is a lot of work to be done.Since the business is aligning itself that leaves IT in a good position to tie itself to all LOBs. Strategic themes have not been capitalized upon but with the SOA the chances of identifying and being able to act on them will be greater. Getting strong leadership in place within IT and partnering with IT will be a major task that needs to be undertaken. * The different pro ject types are currently not broken up and funded appropriately. The architecture projects seem to be falling behind and definitely not aligned with business strategy. The focus on all dimensions of IT strategy will need to be a priority for the new steering committee.Building these processes and methods alongside the business will ensure commitment and success. This has not been the case with AgCredit in the past but in order to get IT working for the company it will have to be adopted and maintained. * Account managers that report to the CIO or senior IT managers will need to be hired or found internally. IT and the business’s disconnect between must cease and they should unify. From Lecture 9 and the Textbook reading assignment pages 230 – 244. * IT has not kept pace with were it needs to be for the organization.They are not prepared to take on the expanded roles IT is expected to recently. The company will need to correct the IT organizational structure and then fi gure out what competencies they possess. They will need to chart the maturity and make sure they teach or hire staff that can fill the roles the company wants to keep internal. The notion of outsourcing all of IT was raised at the start of the case, but the executives need to get together and chart a course for the organization. After getting an idea of where they want to be they can actually start to consider what IT functions can be outsourced.Customer service functions and capabilities will need to remain in-house since this is the business’s competitive advantage in the environment. * The staffing issues in the company are a direct result of not realizing which IT functions the business needs to cultivate and rely on. There are too many functions for this company to be able to turn around perform well so something will have to give and other alternatives, either insourcing or outsourcing, need to be considered. Without knowing how the business divisions and processes fit together it will be hard to complete, but IT and the business need to work together to create a solution.

Mission and Vision Statement Essay

A mission statement is a formal short written statement of the purpose of the company or organization. The mission statement should guide the actions of the organization, spell out its over all goal, provide a sense of direction, and guide decision making. It provides the framework or context within which the company’s strategies are formulated. A mission statement talks about the present leading towards the future. Your mission statement may change, but it should still tie back to your core values, customer needs and vision. A vision statement takes into account the current status of the organization and serves to point the direction of where the organization wishes to go. As means of setting a central goal that the organization will aspire to reach, the vision statement helps to provide a focus for the mission of the corporation, business or non profit entity. A vision statement talks about your future. As your organization evolves, you might feel tempted to change your vision. However, mission or vision statements explain your organization’s foundation, so change should be kept to a minimum. What are the functions of mission statement? It lists the broad goals for which the organization is formed. Its prime function is internal; to define the key measure or measures of the organization’s success and its prime audience is the leadership, team and stockholders. What are the functions of vision statement? It lists where you see yourself some years from now. It inspires you to give your best. It shapes your understanding of why you are working here Purpose The mission statement guides the day-to-day operations and decision-making of the organization. It helps in tactical planning and â€Å"rallying the troops† around a common near- to medium-term goal. The mission statement helps members of the organization get on the same page on what they should do and how they should do it. The vision statement is, in a sense, loftier. It outlines the worldview of the organization and why it exists. It attracts  people — not just employees but also customers and vendors — who believe in the vision of the organization. What to Include in a Mission Statement When developing a mission statement, it should be seen that the following questions are answered: What do we do today? For whom do we do it? What is the benefit? Features of an effective mission statement are: Purpose and values of the organization What business the organization wants to be in (products or services, market) or who are the organization’s primary â€Å"clients† (stakeholders) What are the responsibilities of the organization towards these â€Å"clients† What are the main objectives that support the company in accomplishing its mission What to Include in a Vision Statement When developing a vision statement, it should be seen that the following questions are answered: What do we want to do going forward? When do we want to do it? How do we want to do it? Features of an effective vision statement include: Clarity and lack of ambiguity Describing a bright future (hope) Memorable and engaging expression Realistic aspirations, achievable Alignment with organizational values and culture Time bound if it talks of achieving any goal or objective

Diffusion and Osmosis Lab Report Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Diffusion and Osmosis - Lab Report Example One particular example is the absorption of water and other nutrients from the soil by root hairs in plants. The following experiments demonstrate these basic concepts in action, and how distribution of substances in two regions with different concenration gradients occurs. In order to determine osmolarity of a potato and how it is effected by the process of diffusion, a simple experiment is performed. 7 cylindars are carved out from a potato, and then cut to a uniform size of 5 cm. One very important aspect of this experiment are the 6 sucrose solutions, ranging from 0.1 to 0.6 molars, 100 ml each, and placed separately in 6 250-ml beakers together with 100 ml of distilled water. A sensitive balance is also necessary to accurately determine the weight of each potato piece, before and after incubation. Another experiment is performed to determine the process of osmosis. For this experiment a 500 ml beaker is used which is filled with 300 ml of water. A 25-30 cm dialysis tubing bag is essential, since it represents the semi-permiable membrane that is present during osmosis. 4 ml of a 30% glucose and starch (placed in the dialysis bag) and a small amount I2KI represent diffusing substances. Benedict's reagent is also necessary to determine the diffusion pattern of the substances involved. The carved out and cut pota... All the pieces are incubated for 45 minutes, and then their weights are measured and recorded. The percentage change in weight for each of the pieces is also calculated and recorded using the following formula: Percentage change in weigh= weight change/initial weight * 100 In the second experiment is prepared by soaking it in water, closing one end with a rubber band or string as not to let any solution to enter into the bag, and by adding a 4 ml of a 30% glucose solution into the bag. A 4 ml starch solution is also added, and the color of the glucose-starch solution is recorded. Then, 300 ml of distiled water is placed in a 500 ml beaker in which a small amount of I2KI is added. The color of this solution is also recoded. The dialysis bag is placed in the beaker and they are left for 45 minutes. It should be noted that the free end of the bag is not in contact with the solution of the beaker, as it is left lying out of the beaker. The color of both solutions (in the dialysis bag and beaker) are recorded, after which 3 ml samples are taken from each solution, as well as a sample of distilled water, representing the control tube. Placed in 3 different tubes, a small amount of Benedict's reagent is added to each tube. The final colors are then recorded. - Results Using the data collected from the first experiment, a graph can be plotted (Table 1). The y axis represents the osmolarities of the sucrose solutions, representing the independent variable while the x axis represents the weight of the potato pieces after incubation, represents the dependent variables, with the negative value being a decrease in potato piece weight, and vise

Human Resource (Supporting Organizational Strategies) Assignment

Human Resource (Supporting Organizational Strategies) - Assignment Example American Airlines and Southwest Airlines have taken different approaches to the way each organization handled on-time flights. The culture he describes in American Airlines is one of fear, promoting blame amongst the employees. Leaders demand to know who is responsible for the problem, focusing on accountability instead of the true causes (Pfeffer, 2005). On the other hand, Southwest Airlines is described as breeding a culture of accountability, but from a different perspective than that of American Airlines. Rather than focusing on the individual or group of people who have caused the delay, they make it a point to promote the fact that delays are everyone’s responsible; supporting the mind-set that the organization is a team. Thus, Pfeffer (2005) describes Southwest Airlines as having greater success in its approach, working to find solutions rather than the person or department to blame the problem on. Managing a company’s culture has been proven to be at the root of its successes, and failures (Pfeffer, 2005). While accountability is extremely important in business, who is being held accountable is even more critical. As can be seen in the American Airlines example discussed, the blame-game can transform a well-meaning system into a useless chain of finger-pointing in a hurry. Then, the focus is on finding out who is responsible for the problem, rather than how it happened, to try and avoid it in the future; hence, Pfeffer’s emphasis on changing leader mind-sets to change the culture. key source of competitive advantage,† there is another responsibility, just as crucial to overall business success, that Human Resources (HR) must consider (Pfeffer, 2005, p. 127). Pfeffer (2005) suggests the diagnosis of changes to be made in regard to the mind-set of an organization is one of the most important, yet most underestimated tasks the HR team will

Rapunzel Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Rapunzel - Essay Example It so happens that Rapunzal’s real mother, during her long-awaited pregnancy demands the fruit of Rapunzel plant grown in the neighboring garden. Her husband complies with the same, but is caught by the owner Dame Gothel, who frees him with the promise of handing the coming child to her. Consequently, the parents surrender to Dame, which confides the girl in a magical tower having no stairs or other source to reach. Dame herself assures her entrance to climb over the tower by holding the girl’s very long blonde hair she offers by felling the same through the window of the tower. Since the girl, named Rapunzal, is not familiar with the outer world, no one has got acquaintance with her dwelling in the tower. Somehow, a prince discovering her voice while singing, and detected the way to reach her during night hours. The both fall in love and promise to get married. However, Dame detects the affair, deprived Rapunzal of her hair and kicks her out of the tower. She also fell s the prince from the tower, and the fall deprives him of his eyesight. Both the two spent many years in wandering, and subsequently reunited with the help of the same singing voice of the girl. The prince leads her to his kingdom where they enter into marital knot and thus lead a happy life for the rest. Since the fairytale invites the curiosity of the readers for the explanation of theme and symbols involved in the story, the present paper aims to throw light on the same by applying psychoanalysis of the story. Presented by illustrious Austrian psychologist Sigmund Freud, psychoanalytic theory specifically concentrates upon the erotic feelings prevailing in human mind. He not only declares sexual gratification as one of the most imperative thing in human conscious and subconscious, but also interprets every dream as the outcome of unfulfilled sexual desires. Somehow, his theory is not confined to sexual gratification only. Rather, all the actions providing mental and physical plea sures are the part of his theory. The same can be witnessed in the story under analysis, where Rapunzal’s mother forces her husband to pluck the plant from the adjacent garden for her, and the husband acts upon her instructions without taking legal and moral legitimacy of the theft on the one hand, as well as the outcome of his entering the garden without permission on the other. (1-2) The same is the case with the enchantress, which turns extremely haughty and revengeful towards him, and demands the most precious thing the couple has been waiting for the last several years i.e. their coming child. Thus, the small wish to taste the fruit of a plant that did not belonged to the couple deprives them of the beautiful child they have been waiting vey anxiously for a long time as the greatest joy their life. The enchantress’s keeping Rapunzal confined in the tower far from the eyes of the people also reflects upon the very fact that she does not allow any sharing in the lov e between her and the adopted daughter. She provides all basic necessities to the girl, but fails to comprehends with the reality that when the god Eros hurls his arrow in the heart of the individuals, it is really hard to escape its affects altogether. The same is the case with the young girl, who cannot resist the charm of love growing in her heart at her first meeting with the prince, and is captivated with the sweet words he delivers in her praise. It not only urges the wish to attain freedom from her many years long imprisonment, but also seduces her to make erotic love with the prince. Hence, carnal desires overcome the feelings for her so called mother, which forces her put her life at stake in the pursuit of physical love. Here appears the

Climate change in the past, today and future Essay

Climate change in the past, today and future - Essay Example Previously, little awareness and concern was attributed to the changing patterns in climate and the risk on human health populations associated with it. However, today with the continued urbanization and distancing of human life from the natural systems, reality has dawned that the world’s climate system is indeed an integral part of the complex of life-supporting processes, and, therefore, requires urgent measures in its maintenance and sustainability. With the world increasing economic development and growth, many of the natural systems coming under pressure from the increased populations (Githeko and Woodward, 2003). Asia has a significant increase in human population and currently the most populated continent in the world, an aspect that has resulted in a reduction of resource availability, forcing individuals to engage in activities that despite being beneficial to human remain short lived and significantly contribute towards increasing climatic change. The increased population contributes towards difficult environmental and socio-economic challenges, caused by the activities indicated above, which increase the production of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases prove, as the greatest challenge for the world today, and most especially in Asia. Concerns remain the reduction strategies of the greenhouse emissions to levels that would not interfere with the climate system (Ebi, Mearns, and Nyenzi, 1999). Asia as a continent is currently undergoing significant industrialization and, therefore, a producer of significant amounts of gases, including the greenhouse gases, released into the atmosphere without prior treatment. On average, the atmosphere shields the earth surface of up to 50% of sunlight rays. Additionally, greenhouse gases, which take up 2% of the atmosphere, also play a significant role in the absorption of the sunlight rays up to 17% (Ebi, Mearns, and Nyenzi, 1999). For the light reaching the earth’s surface, absorption takes place followed by

Hawaii Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

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Developed and emerging markets firm Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Developed and emerging markets firm - Essay Example To date, emerging markets have become the greatest global growth driver. This has given rise to a debate concerning why one has to invest in the emerging markets. There are many reasons that can make an investor to consider investing in these regions. This paper explores the reasons for developed and emerging market firms investing in each other’s home regions. The paper also explains why reasons of these kind and entry strategy availability differed for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in emerging and developed economies. An investor may invest in an emerging market in order to invest in a region that has displayed some considerable growth currently and in the future. These countries have a future that is foreseeable. Research done by the international monetary fund reported that the emerging economies have a two to three chance of growing faster than the countries that are developed. Such a narrative growth is extremely vital for investors that may fail to be clued on the bul l trends of the prominent Wall Street. In many cases, corporate profits are observed to be growing at a rate that is fast whenever the economic growth of a country or region is high. For example, US companies have increased their profit margin in the last twelve months due to the growing non-US markets. Besides this, some public investors have still considered emerging markets as underweight especially in their portfolios. Additionally, the emerging economies provides increased diversification as they appear to perform differently than the markets that are developed. This is a significant benefit towards an investor. Emerging markets are also considered as markets that have succeeded in decoupling of the long term and biggest West mature economies woes. For example, the Market Stanley index is an emerging market that consist of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Columbia, Egypt, Israel, Czech Republic, Hungary, Indonesia, India, Korea, Jordan, Mexico, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru, Pakistan, Polan d, Russia, Taiwan, Venezuela, Thailand, South Africa, and Turkey (McAllister, 2006). In comparison to West countries, a number of emerging markets are normally well resourced, have a work force that is young and balance sheets that are strong. For example, India and China together have a population that is approximately three times that of the entire world. In this respect, markets that are emerging do represent about eighty six percent of the population of the world, seventy five percent of the landmass of the world, and about fifty percent of the growth domestic product of the world. In many cases, emerging markets, are displayed in different forms and sizes. In this respect, there are minimal similarities between the structures of finance and the returns drives on investments. For instance, financial systems and a highly developed economy like South Korea and the frontier markets have limited similarities. On the other hand, in emerging markets, the GDP per capita is normally hig her than in the poorer developed countries. For instance, Taiwan and Korea have a per capita of about $22,000, which is a high ratio margin compared to a number of European countries (McAllister, 2006). However, some emerging markets have extremely low ratios like India. India has a GDP of about $ 1500. The countries of the frontier are considered to be extreme. Countries like Qatar and Kuwait states of oil are the wealthiest countries in

Socrates, Body and Soul Essay Example for Free

Socrates, Body and Soul Essay In the first part of the Phaedo, Socrates lays out his theory regarding the immortality of the soul. Near the end of this part he breaks down the body and soul and shows us that they are very different in permanence and structure. The body and soul, which are are interlinked when alive and separated at death, are fundamentally different constructs. The dichotomy here is expressed through the argument as opposites of composition, ideal forms, solidity, spirituality, and visibility. Socrates opens the overall discussion at 64c by defining death as separation of the soul from the body while the argument regarding the duality of body and soul is picked up again at the end of 78b with the major premise being whether or not the soul is something that can be scattered. Socrates continues by stating that anything that is non-composite will likely stay in one piece over time, while composite or compound items will eventually break down into individual parts. Furthermore, composite objects are subject to change and â€Å"vary from one time to another† (78c) with things that are static likely being non-composite in nature. Socrates now elects to pull in the invisible perfect forms that are the ideals of the corporeal existence. â€Å"The Equal itself, the Beautiful itself, each thing in itself, the real †¦ remain the same and never in any way tolerate any change whatever. † (78d) This is a continuation of a previous line of reasoning that starts at 65d with the introduction of the pure concepts that are partially enumerated as the Beautiful, the Just, and the Good and culminating with the realization that perfect knowledge of these can only be obtained with a total disconnect of the soul from the body. The perfect forms presented are actually assumptions that serve to further the argument along. Our direct existence allows us to experience the particulars of the beautiful such as â€Å"men, horses, clothes, or other such things †¦ and all those which bear the same name as the others. † (78e) These particulars help to form our day to day experience and are always in a constant state of flux with relation to themselves or each other. Socrates goes on to posit that those that are static in nature can be grasped only directly by the mind and are among the invisible. Furthermore, we are to assume that the classes of visible and invisible exist and are real and that the visible is in constant change and the invisible is static in nature. Socrates then establishes the visible and invisible existences and states that the visible is in constant change, while the invisible in absolutely never changes. The argument is further refined at 79c by defining the body and soul as parts that can be split into two separate entities with the body being visible and the soul invisible. Now, at the bottom of 79c, the soul is described as being â€Å"dragged by the body to the things that are never the same, and the soul itself strays and is confused and dizzy as if it were drunk, in so far as it is in contact with that kind of thing. † This is a continuation of the argument near 66a, whereby â€Å"the body confuses the soul and does not allow it to acquire truth and wisdom whenever it is associated with it. † In 79d, Socrates tells us that the soul is akin to the â€Å"pure, ever existing, immortal, and unchanging. † When investigation is done by the soul itself, it enters the spiritual realm and â€Å"will cease straying and only then will it experience wisdom. The logical conclusion of this argument is that â€Å"the soul is altogether more like that which always exists in the same state rather than like that which does not. † (79e) The argument proceeds to lay out the notions of the nature of the divine and the mortal as that of to lead and to follow. Next the body is posited to resemble most closely the mortal and the soul the divine. To summarize the argument , at 80b, Socrates said â€Å"that the soul is most like the divine, deathless, intelligible, uniform, indissoluble, always the same as itself, whereas the body is most like that which is human, mortal, mustiform. Unintelligible, soluble and never consistently the same. † Based on this Socratean argument, the body and soul are fundamentally different constructs. Their properties are diametrically opposite to each other, with the soul being immortal, unchangeable and non-composite. On the other hand, the body is mortal, changeable, and a composite structure. It has been shown that composites really has a risk of blowing away after death, while the soul does not. References Morito, Bruce (2000). Introduction to Philosophy West and East, Study Guide. Athabasca: Athabasca University. Grube, G. M. A. (1977). Plato Phaedo (translation). Indianapolis, Indiana: Hacket Publishing Company, Inc.

Egyptian Civilization and Classical Greek Essay Example for Free

Egyptian Civilization and Classical Greek Essay Egyptian Civilization and Classical Greek Introduction            Civilization has been dated to be as old and human kind whereby it’s an advanced state of human activity signified by high levels of cultural, science, industry and government development. Over time, there has been civilization all the word with different regions undergoing the civilization at different times. One of the most influential civilization processes globally is the ‘Egyptian civilizations’ (Freeman, 2004).            Egypt is a country found in the North of Africa, on the Mediterranean Sea. The country is referred as one of the earliest to experience civilization on earth. The country (Egypt) thrived for thousands of years whose culture was famous and influential for its great culture cultural advances in every area of human knowledge such as science, technology and religion. One of the most and still remains important in the Egyptians history is the great monuments which reflects the depth of Egyptian culture which in turn is believed to have influenced many of the ancient civilizations such as the cases of Rome and Greece (Freeman, 2004).            As I figured out, there are numerous feature and aspects that defined Egyptian civilization but one of the prominent aspect as the architectures. Ancient Egyptians were built their pyramids; temples and tombs remains of Egypts monumental architectural achievements are visible across the land, a tribute to the greatness of this civilization. As I visited the country, I could not fail to identify the numerous mysteries in terms of civilizations. In addition, there is no any other civilization that has captured the eyes of civilization over time like that of ancient Egypt. Mysteries like its origin, religion and even how they came up with the monumental architecture such as pyramids has been a real mystery (Talbert, 2012).            The architectural breakthrough in Egypt has been one of the sources of civilization into the entire world. The pyramids’ has made the country one of the famous, as the constructions are the remaining ones among the initial Seven Wonders of the World. One of the reasons behind the prominence of the pyramid is the fact that the Egyptians never showed how actually the pyramids were made. The art form in the focus in Egypt civilization is the architectural knowledge in the country and the role it played in the civilization process. The purpose of the architectural knowledge that resulted to the building of the pyramid in the ancient Egypt, the purpose of the piece is the fact the Egyptians were believed to be among the first to elect buildings, and as I can see here, Ancient Egyptians are the ones who have taught humanity how to erect and design buildings. Of the seven famous structures in the seven wonders list, in the ancient world as the Great Pyramid of Giza (Talbert, 2012).            This architectural structure is the most recognizable in the country (Egypt), and not only is the structure among the oldest, but it is still the one that remains as the proof of the civilization in the region as it is still the structure that remains. During my visit in the region, I also found that, The Great Giza Pyramid was recorded as the tallest artificial construction in the globe for 3800 Yrs which is not only an evidence to its stability but to its score as one of the largely exceptional structures built. According to the information obtained, the ‘Giza Pyramid’ was not the initial pyramid to be constructed; ‘however’ this pyramid became one of the largely famous structures in the globe. Why did Giza Pyramid get all the celebrity and splendour? The Pyramid though not much big than nearly every pyramid, is in reality the biggest pyramid ever built. This pyramid represents the improvements and accomplishments of structural design in Egypt. The pyramid is precise, large and required an irresistible amount of organization. It is not the pyramid that is so captivating but it is the method and process used to create it. Even today, Egyptologists are not entirely certain how The Great Pyramid of Giza was constructed (Duchesne, 2012).            In conclusion, the architectural prowess of the Egyptian architectures is found to be influential to the architectural civilization in the rest parts of the world. I also found that, Ancient Egyptian architects were also known as Chiefs of Construction, as they skilled in their designing of great religious, funerary, and public buildings, where one of their constructions is the Great Giza Pyramid (Duchesne, 2012). In addition to the magnificent structures, there also exists the sketch plans for the various building and structure that were elected during the ancient times. In addition, during my visit, I also managed to find the preserved two sketch plans on papyrus and flakes of stones, which showed the accuracy of the architects work. To the mentioned inventions in the ancient Egypt, many more can be traced to have its origin back to the Egyptians. For example, rule of law, use of spreadsheets, temples and columns and women liberation. Hence, it is clear that, the modern world civilization owes much of its development and achievements to the ancient Egyptians knowledge (Spielvogel, 2012). Classical Greek or Hellenistic Civilizations            Classical Greece is referred as a period of 200 years in the Greek culture which run between the 5th and the 4th centuries BC. The period is credited for its powerful influence to the Roman Empire as well as greatly influencing the basis of western civilization. There are numerous aspects of the modern culture such as the politics, architecture, scientific, literature and philosophies that were derived from the classical Greece period. This classical Greece period is also known as Hellenic period. The civilization in the classical Greece times had a tremendous impact to the civilization of the other parts of the words in different aspects such as the art of war, religion, culture among many other aspects. The period referred as classical Greece is denoted by cultural and military achievements. The Classical Period produced remarkable cultural and scientific achievements (Freeman, 2014).            Just is the case of the Egyptian civilization, the architectural development in the Classical Greek time, was also very vital in the civilization of the region. For centuries, ancient Greece gained control of many universal architectural designs and movements. Most of the breathtaking masterpieces that are present around the world derive their inspiration from ancient Greece. Greece as a country is highly famous for its rich diversity of architectural designs and it is for this reason that the latter is divided into different timeline along centuries and civilization eras (Spielvogel, 2012). For instance, a tourist visiting the city of Athens in Greece is likely to come across architecture classified according to either Minoan civilization, Mycenaean civilization or many others. In an exclusive guide to architecture based on historical periods, one can have a walk from ancient times to present day. To begin with, Minoan architecture prospered during the 15th to the 27th century BC. It was during this period that that one of the most famous architectural designs was invented. This building was the palace of Knossos that is located on a small hill that is enclosed by a thick forest of pine trees (Freeman, 2014). This palace is divided into two wings where the first wing, known as the west wing, hosts religious and official staterooms. The second wing is known as the east wing that is normally used for workshop, meetings and other domestic purposes. At the time, archeologists who examined and studied the palace of Knossos found marvelous stones called frescoes beneath the layers of ash. This made them to believe that the ruin and destruction of the town of Minoa and Knossos was directly related to the eruption of the Santorini volcano. These frescoes have crystal clear colors and mimic happy scenarios from daily life occasions and festivities. The combination of these frescoes with the fact that the town of Minoa lacked security walls is enough evidence that peaceful relationships existed with other cultures. Furthermore, other less famous sites existed in Minoa and included the palace of Phaestos and Zakros (Freeman, 2014).            In conclusion, the architectural knowledge possessed by the Greek contributed greatly to the development of the structures. The outstanding thing about the materialization of Hellenic civilization is its sharp departure from the norm, rising as it did from a dark age in which a small number of poor, isolated and illiterate people developed their own kind of society. Political control was shared by a relatively large portion of the people and participation in political life was highly valued. Most states imposed no regular taxation; there was no separate caste of priests and little concern for life after death. Speculative natural philosophy based on observation and reason arose in this varied, dynamic, secular and remarkably free context (Spielvogel, 2012). This was an era of unparalleled achievement (Benton DiYanni, 2012). While the rest of the world continued to be characterized by monarchical, hierarchical command societies, Athenian democracy was carried as fa r as it would go before modern times. Democracy disappeared with the end of Greek autonomy late in the fourth century B.C.E. When it returned in the modern world more than two millennia later, it was broader but shallower, without the emphasis on active direct participation of every citizen in the government. In addition, many of the literary genres and forms that are ritual in the modern world arose and were developed during this time. The Greek emphasis on naturalistic art that idealized the human forms also diverged from previous and contemporary art in the rest of the world. To a great extent, these developments sprang from the independence and unique political experience of the Greeks (Spielvogel, 2012). Impact of Diversity on the Future Art            There has been vast diversity between the arts presented by the different arts and eras of civilization. Diversity has affected America’s ethnicity ever since its commencement. The different immigrant groups that have come to America has brought along with them their different individual, beliefs, religious practices, architectural developments, and other numerous civilization aspects associated with each group. The different groups helped to generate the colonies and finally the US as one country. In modern America, diversity of traditions has taken on a diverse implication (Benton DiYanni, 2012). The theory has extended from cultural and ethnic custom to the interlinking of gay rights and marriage as well as social ethics. Additionally, there is currently the concept that America must accept and acclimatize to foreign traditions and make legal the use of numerous languages on government documents, street signs and in the unrestricted classrooms all over A merica rather than the incomers adjusting themselves to America’s rich language and culture. The various civilizations undergone from the different parts of the globe have directly affected the Americans way of life, and in turn diversity existence in United States (Benton DiYanni, 2012).            The numerous architectural development and civilization from the two regions has greatly diversified the architectural aspect of United States. There have been numerous civilizations undertaken in the regions discussed which have greatly influenced major political, social and economic factors which have in turn changed American life in the 1960s and 1970s (Benton DiYanni, 2012). The architectural and arts civilization in the Egyptian and Greece has greatly diversified the American culture and architecture developments over time. The  architecture  of the  United States  demonstrates a broad variety of  architectural styles  and built forms over the countrys  history  of over four centuries of independence and former  British rule. Architecture in the United States is as diverse as its multicultural society and has been shaped by many internal and external factors and regional distinctions. As a whole it represents a rich eclectic and innovative t radition (Benton DiYanni, 2012).            The future impact of the art is greatly impacted by the diversity in the American community and culture. For example, Australian Aboriginal painting is analyzed as a case study of the transition from ritual art to commercial art. The arts and cultural aspects are a reinforcing and celebrating different communities’ character (Benton DiYanni, 2012). Arts and culture strategies help to reveal and enhance the underlying identity the unique meaning, value, and character of the physical and social form of a community. This identity is reflected through the communitys character or sense of place. A communitys sense of place is not a static concept; rather, it evolves and develops over time, reflecting the spectrum of social values within and around the community. In this way, the community character of a city, county, town, or neighbourhood can be seen as a story or narrative of a place (Benton DiYanni, 2012). References Benton, J. R., DiYanni, R. (2012).  Arts and culture: An introduction to the humanities: combined volume. Boston: Prentice Hall. Duchesne, R. (2012). A Civilization of Explorers.  Academic Questions,  25(1), 65-93. doi:10.1007/s12129-012-9276-9 Freeman, C. (2014).  Egypt, Greece and Rome: Civilizations of the ancient Mediterranean. Freeman, C. (2004).  Egypt, Greece, and Rome: Civilizations of the ancient Mediterranean. Oxford: Oxford University Press. OConnor, D. B., Reid, A., University College, London. (2003).  Ancient Egypt in Africa. Walnut Creek, CA: Left Coast Press. Talbert, R. J. A. (2012).  Ancient perspectives: Maps and their place in Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece Rome. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Spielvogel, J. J. (2012).  Western civilization. Australia: Wadsworth/Cengage Learning. Source document

The Root Causes Of Terrorism

The Root Causes Of Terrorism Few events in history shape the way societies react to future anomalies, one such being, the attack on the Twin Towers in 2001.With this event followed a flurry of discussions on Terrorism in media, academia circles, and several other forums. The spill over effect was felt all across the globe in form of pre-emptive coercive military and diplomatic intervention by the super powers in states like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. But with rising number of losses, both human and pecuniary, suffered by the society on the whole; is this strategy of intimidation coupled with aid addressing the root cause of the problem? Terrorism is one of the gravest challenges faced by the world today. Vast monetary resources in form of military as well as developmental aid have been diverted to counter this menace. In spite of the ostentatious expenditures sustained by the world community, have we been successful so far in quelling this threat? Leaders and academicians from wide spectrum of disciplines have been advocating for addressing the root causes of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, the question looming over this entire debate is what are the root causes of Terrorism? One of the key linkages of terrorism identified by the political ranks, especially after the 9-11 attacks was, terrorism and other forms of political violence are a product of economic and socio-political factors. US-President Bush (2002) argued that there is a vicious circle of political disenfranchisement, state failure and terror, saying that because [] persistent poverty and oppression can lead to hopelessness and despair [] these failed states can become havens for terror. Similarly, then-UK Prime Minister Blair (2004) argued: [] poverty and instability leads to weak states, which can become havens for terrorists []. (Krieger and Meierrieks 2010). The remarks discussed above open a new-fangled and a broader approach to addressing the problem. Terrorism is admittedly a very complex social phenomenon. It is the outcome of a set of quantitative as well as qualitative factors, which function at various levels of causation and where some of the factors are directly observable while others are latent (Drakos and Gofas April 2006). Although terrorism is a presumably multifaceted and multi-casual phenomenon lying between the nexus of war and peace, scholarly research on the causes of terrorism has all but escaped rigorous empirical analysis (OBrien June 1996) .Nevertheless, in this contribution I attempt to identify the plausible reasons for the emergence of terrorism. The study exposits the economic, social, and political factors which are considered to be the main causes of manifestation of terrorism based on the existing literature and widely held perceptions. I explore the empirical validity of the causes of terrorism using econometric methods and seek to establish results which could be used in formulating effective counter terrorism strategies. The Dissertation is divided into 4 sections. I first discuss the theoretical foundations of my work and then in the subsequent section move on to discussing the existing literature on this issue. The main focus of Section 3 is to show if there exists a relationship (even though casual) linking terrorism with economic, social and political conditions in various regions across the globe. In order to capture this relationship I estimate a panel regression for 109 countries from 1971 to 2005. Section 4 involves a detailed discussion of the problems associated with the estimated procedures and how results could have been affected by them. Lastly I conclude by summarizing my main findings and provide recommendations based on the empirical findings using the panel regressions Theoretical Foundation There are myriad circumstances capable of giving rise to terrorism. Terrorists exist in developed as well as less developed countries; in former colonial states and in independent ones; in democratic and in non democratic states and so on. This implies that one needs to incorporate a number of diverse conditions while trying to develop an understanding of Terrorism. This makes it difficult to arrive at any form of generalisation (Lia and Skjà ¸lberg 2000). In spite of this complexity, the causes of terrorism can be broadly explained by the following approaches1 -: Psychological Societal Geopolitical The Psychological approach focuses on the individual or a group of individuals decision to become a terrorist or join the terrorist group or sympathise with the ideology. Psycho-pathological and Psycho-sociological are two important approaches that fall under the psychological approach. The former treats an individual terrorist in isolation and accepts violent behaviour as a deviant characteristic. Such an advancement has been criticized not only for divesting terrorism completely from socio-economic and political setting, but also on empirical grounds (Lia and Skjà ¸lberg 2000).Authors such as Wintrobe (2006), Frey and Luchinger (2004) while criticizing the psycho-pathological approach argue that terrorists are indeed rational beings and operate on the basis of a cost-benefit principle. The Psycho-sociological approach on the other hand relates psychological factors and the societal environment [Wilkinson, Paul 1990]. Several others, such as Crenshaw (1990), Stedman (1997) also arg ue in favour of combining psychological and environmental factors on various stratums to arrive at any comprehensive theory of the causes of terrorism. Under the above mentioned framework theories such as the relative deprivation theory [Piazza, A James (2004)], Contagion theory [Weimann and Brouiss (1988)] are the most widely used premise to explain the phenomenon of terrorism. The relative deprivation1 theory emphasizes deprivation in form of poverty, health, life expectancy and etc as major causes of terrorism. The contagion theory on the other hand considers terrorism to be duration dependant i.e. terrorism being far from random (Lia and Skjà ¸lberg 2000); There exists voluminous empirical evidence suggesting the relevance of the contagion theory1. Societal approach lays emphasis on the historical and present social, cultural, economical, political, in short overall environmental development of any given region. Under the societal approach, factors such as modernization, globalization, urbanization, economic development, state legitimacy, politics etc are assumed to be primary in explaining terrorism [Crenshaw 1990a, 1995]. Critics of the societal approach often argue that the relationship between terrorism and the factors treated under the societal approach are at best casual. Lastly the geo-political approach essentially relates to International Terrorism. This approach considers factors such as state sponsorship of terrorism, hegemony and weak and collapsed state as major causes of terrorism. Works of Volgy et al., Guelke, have pioneered in using the geo political approach to explain the phenomenon of terrorism. The opportunity cost model is one of the extensively used models in economics to analyse the causes of terrorism. In this work I use the same microeconomic opportunity cost model presented by Freytag Kruger and Schneider (2008), Anderton, Charles H; Carter, John R (2004)]. As I will show in discussions to follow, that such a treatment is indeed capable of encompassing the theories explained by the various approaches discussed above, hence making it ideal for usage in my analysis. Also, while formulating policies for counter terrorism strategies the usage of opportunity cost model assumes even a greater level of importance [Bruno S. Frey and Simon Luechinger (2003)] The traditional microeconomic framework looks at the decision making calculus and goals of an individual terrorist, as well as a group of terrorists and their sympathisers. One of the basic assumptions of this framework is that terrorist or the terrorist organizations are rational decision makers (essentially adhering to the rational choice model1) who have preferences over terrorism as well as ordinary activities [Anderton, Charles H; Carter, John R (2004)]. Incentives for an individual terrorist differ from that of the leaders who organize the terror. The opportunity costs of a leader of the terrorist organization are not measurable directly; violence for them is just a means to an end (Harrison, 2006).Thus their opportunity costs are reflected in their ability to use violence. Since the ability to use violence depends on the involved economic costs which inturn depends on the environment, hence we can conclude that the societal environment indirectly reflect the opportunity cost f acing a leader. On the contrary, for an individual terrorist, incentives could be the solidarity that the group provides or the economic rewards that the he or she may be able to reap from terrorism or otherwise .His or hers opportunity cost in fact would be directly reflected in the societal environment. How an individual decision making dilemma can have an implication for the various subgroups on the whole is as follows. For any organization to survive, it is the preferences of their recruits or the volunteers that matter the most since they are being directly affected by their own actions as against the leader. Hence by analysing the individual choice problem we are in a way capturing the choices faced by the various sub-groups on the whole. Given this I focus on an individual faced with 2 choices either to become a terrorist or consume material rewards. I assume that there exists a set of rewards (mental) that an individual can gain from committing an act of terror or sympathising with the cause. On the other hand an individual by not becoming a terrorist can reap the benefits of employing his energies in other productive activities. I represent this in the figure shown below. The decision to become a terrorist or not depends on the shape of the utility curve. A high preference for terrorism would imply greater their willingness to some material rewards to achieve an increment to mental rewards; they would have steep indifference curves in the utility space. Non-terrorists receive no utility or even disutility from terrorism, so their indifferences curves would be flat or upward sloping. The shape of the utility curve determines the strength of the substitution and the income effect. For any terrorist the utility maximization problem can be written down in the following manner: Argmax. (T, O) U (1) Subject to R = Pt T + Po O (Budget Line) 1(eyerman) (2) Where R denotes the total resources; Pt and Po denote the respective prices of terrorism1 (terrorism as a public good and its pricing) and composite good respectively; T denotes the quantity of terrorism and O denotes the quantity of composite good. In fig 1 for any individual the utility is maximized at point A. Now suppose that the GDP, democracy or education etc increase. This increases the material wealth available to the person there by increasing the opportunity cost of terrorist activities. The budget line pivots around the point D and the new budget constraint is DF with the new equilibrium level being at point C. Similarly, when opportunity cost of terrorist activities fall, the budget constraint becomes flatter (shown by DG) and this over all increases the preferences for mental rewards otherwise Terrorism. The corner solution given by point D shows the maximum level of utility that a person can achieve by committing a terrorist attack. As noted by [Kruger et al (2008)] this is the point at which an individual chooses to commit suicide bombing. Mental Rewards Source: The origins of terrorism One can also represent this choice problem using an inter-temporal budget constraint. Assuming that the terrorists have a two-period horizon and must choose between terrorist activities today (T0) and tomorrow (T1) based on resources today (R0) and tomorrow (R1), the inter-temporal budget constraint1 [Walter Enders* Todd Sandler 2002] is given by: T1 = R1 + (1+ r) (R0- T0), Where r is the interest rate. (3) In the above equation tomorrows terrorism equals tomorrows resource endowment plus the earnings on savings from the initial period. The inter-temporal budget constraint framework can be used to explain the contagion effects via effects such as the inter-temporal substitution effects. Hence any shift or a tilt in the budget line DE would either raise or lower the opportunity cost of terrorism. The changes in the budget line are due to changes in the economic, social or political factors, and other factors which fall under the various approaches discussed in the first paragraph of this section. One can also restate the above mechanism in the following way, the utility that an individual derives from being peaceful or being violent depends upon the environment that the individual functions in. This is because the opportunity costs for being violent or peaceful facing an individual depend on macro variables affecting the settings that he or she operates under. These macro variables as we have seen can be either country specific or globally universal. This essentially gives us a new equation for the utility of the form (4) Where is a vector of macro variables that affect the opportunity cost of an individual; represents the vector of coefficients which suggest the magnitude and the direction of the relationship that each macro variable shares with the utility that an individual attains from being either peaceful or violent; is the error term in the equation depicting the other factors which may effect the utility. As seen earlier, factors identified by the theories listed above such as poverty, globalization, geopolitical-setting, urbanization etc. can be used to explain the phenomenon of terrorism by using the traditional framework of opportunity cost Thus the challenge lies in identifying the key macro variables which affect the opportunity cost. But before moving on to empirically testing the relevance of the macro variables effecting terrorism, I now review the existing literature in the subsequent section. Existing Literature one mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter problem (Jenkins 1982; Hoffman 1998).

The Indian Triumph of Dionysus Essay -- Art Analysis

While visiting the Museum of Fine Arts Houston, I came across The Indian Triumph of Dionysus. Originating in Rome, it was created by a wealthy follower of Dionysus’s mystery cult in the late second century A.D. This worshiper evidently wanted to construct a sarcophagus in tribute of Dionysus’s accomplishments. Furthermore, Dionysus is surrounded by characters that are within the mystery cult because the creator wants the viewers to know with whom he is associated. With these two things combined, the patron hoped to shed light on a piece of history that they believed to be prominent during his life. The layout of the museum makes it very easy to find works of art from different time periods. Since I have always been fascinated with ancient Greece and Rome, I knew exactly where to start my search. The Indian Triumph of Dionysus is on display directly at the top of the staircase leading up to the second floor. It is surrounded by many other artifacts from ancient Greece and Rome. As your eyes move across the room, catching a glint of gold here and pearly white marble there, it’s very easy to become overwhelmed for a moment. As I reached the top of the stairs, it was evident that the staging of this magnificent piece was carefully planned. The staff of the museum undoubtedly wants this piece seen by each and every visitor. The exhibit itself is well done. If you stand directly in front of The Indian Triumph of Dionysus, everything around you seems to fade away and tunnel vision sets in. As I stood in front of The Indian Triumph of Dionysus, diligently taking notes since phot os are not allowed, I experienced an extreme spiritual connection to the past. I tried to put myself into the shoes of the author. What was his purpose? What d... ...t is also important to notice that every character seems to have wide eyes and dark circles drawn under their eyes. This is perhaps one of the most important aspects because the eyes show the underlying theme of complete inebriation. This in turn, proves the impact that Dionysus had on his followers as well as those who he conquered. Wine brought great power to its creator, and made a lasting impact on history. With these devices of communication, we are able to see that the follower wanted to capture Dionysus’s legacy by creating a sarcophagus of remembrance in his honor. Works Cited â€Å"MFAH Top 100 Highlights #35 - The Indian Triumph of Dionysus† Museum of Fine Arts Houston Online. 06 Apr. 2012. http://www.mfah.org/art/detail/dionysus-indian-triumph/ Unknown. The Indian Triumph of Dionysus. 2nd Century A.D. The Museum of Fine Arts, Houston, Texas.

Ultimate Pets: How an Independent Pet Shop Competes with Giant Pet Stor

This essay explains how I intend to open an independent pet store, Ultimate Pets. Although there are already several pet stores in my community which are owned and operated by the giant pet super-store chains, I will position Ultimate Pets in the market so that it can successfully compete with the established pet super-store chains. As a business in the pet industry, an exotic pet shop offers many products that a large corporation would, but differentiates in a way with the wide range of animals it actually carries in stock. Our store does not carry just any products for the care of your exotic pet. Here at Ultimate Pets we only feature the top brands and products for optimal care. With a helpful and knowledgeable staff to assist you with every question you have about animal care, they will point you in the direction of what is needed to solve your problem. There are many advantages of shopping with us. Most importantly, we will not sell you something that is not needed for optimal care, or sell you an animal that could possibly be sick. All of our pets are quarantined for multiple days before they are put out for sale. This is to prevent transmitting diseases, relieve stress, or mites to other animals they can be displayed with. We also make sure all animals are eating on their own before they are sold. Unlike large corporations, we do not buy from just any ordinary Joe selling animals in large quantities. All of our animals are either bred in store, or are from a private breeder. This decreases the chance of stress and disease. The benefits of shopping with Ultimate Pets, is that you will never leave disappointed or unsure. To ensure customers know what it takes to care for their animals, each de... ...n amount of base and live rock that is recommended for that size. Sometimes this is a more appropriate tactic. We will also this for reptile/amphibian as well as bird cages and products. Many of our customers, want all the essentials right away, this is our way of doing so. References Miller, Gilson. 2012. 10 Ways Retailers Can Leverage Bundling of Products to Drive Sales. Retrieved from: http://upstreamcommerce.com/blog/2012/04/03/10-ways-retailers-leverage-bundling-products-drive-sales Ehmke, Cole. Fulton, Joan. Lusk, Jayson. 2014. Marketing’s Four P’s: First Steps for New Entrepeneurs. Retrieved from: https://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/EC/EC-730.pdf Rodriguez, John. 2014. Owner of Pet Super Center Segrestfarms.com Royalpetsupplies.com Industry. 2009. Pet Shops. Retrieved from: http://www.immediate.com/images/Pet%20Shops.pdf

Why Aliens Are Real

All around the world, there's one topic a lot of people talk about. Some people talk about economics, some talk about pop culture. The topic I'm going to be addressing is why I think Aliens are real. Throughout time, there has been many things that make us believe they are real, like the Roswell Incident. A quick recap of what happened was that what is thought to be a UFO crashed near a ranch in Roswell, New Mexico. The U. S. overnment then took the UFO and told everyone that what the rash was Just debris from the crash of an experimental high-altitude surveillance balloon belonging to what was then a classified (top secret) program named Mogul. This may seem unlikely and unrealistic, as if coming from a movie, but that is because this inspired many alien movies to prop up. This might be one of or maybe the most famous alien incidents ever reported, but there is a more believable one and that is â€Å"The Wow Signal†. In 1977, The Big Ear radio telescope in Ohio State Universi ty picked up an unusual signal.The Big Ear used number and letters to identify the strength of a signal, O being nothing, Z being a strong radio signal. One time, a signal came in reading ‘6EQUJ5' from what seemed to be an empty spot in space. Dr. Jerry R. Ehman recognized this and was completely shocked, so he circled the signal in the data sheet and wrote next to it â€Å"Wow! â€Å", giving the signal it's name. The closest star to where the signal came from was 220 million light years away, meaning the signal came from out of no where.It is believed that this signal was ransmitted by aliens, but we still have no actual proof it is. Now, the bible does say we are the only planet with living beings, but think about this, how big is space? We have no clue of how big it is because it is that big. Being that big, wouldn't there be a possibility that there is a world that has living beings in it? What if the society on that planet is more advanced in technology than ours and t he reason they were able to send the signal was because of a super strong radio signal they aimed at us from some machine they made? at possibility is there and i honestly believe that is the truth. I feel like we are aliens to them and they are trying to communicate with us. Space is so enormous, we can't make decisions of what is out there yet. It is like reading the beginning of a novel and declaring you know exactly what the story is about without reading it. We still have a lot to explore about space, so until we examine every single star, moon, planet, galaxy, anything that is out there, you cant say aliens don't exist because they very well could.

Visual Stream Mapping

VISUAL STREAM MAPPING 1. 1 Introduction Lean manufacturing is a production practice that considers the expenditure of resources for any goal other than the creation of value for the end customer to be wasteful, and thus a target for elimination. Working from the perspective of the customer who consumes a product or service, â€Å"value† is defined as any action or process that a customer would be willing to pay for. The goal of Lean is to becomes the creation and maintenance of a production system which runs repetitively, day after day, week after week in a manner identical to the previous time period. Lean is actually the set of â€Å"tools† that assist in the identification and steady elimination of waste. As waste is eliminated quality improves while production time and cost are reduced. Examples of such â€Å"tools† are  Value Stream Mapping,  5S,  Kanban  (pull systems), and  poka-yoke  (error-proofing). 1. 2Visual Stream Mapping (VSM) Value stream mapping is a process designed to reduce lead time, to make product flow, and to eliminate waste (non value added operations or activities), all for the purpose of meeting customer demand at the lowest cost, and with the highest quality. Lean thinking relies on recognizing the â€Å"seven wastes† – over-production, over-processing, inventory, motion, scrap, waiting, and transportation. Target maps reveal which of these wastes can be eliminated now, and where. The key to producing useful target maps is to look for low-cost improvements that encourage flow, reduce inventory, and test the organization’s ability to manage in a lean environment. The challenge of developing the attitudes, systems and communication necessary for a true pull system operating at customer takt should not be underestimated. A high inventory system hides a multitude of problems, which will slowly be exposed as batch sizes and WIP are reduced. The level of organization and standardization required for one-piece flow are rarely found in companies with traditional production planning and traditional management. Visual Stream Mapping can identify wastes such as: 1. Over-production Over-production is the production of material which is not needed now. It usually occurs in the form of large batches, produced faster than the rate at which they can be consumed Over production is caused by a number of factors, such as long setups, poor quality, machine unreliability, avoidance of setups in order to make performance measures look better, or the desire to keep an expensive resource working. 2. Over-processing There are two aspects to this kind of waste which is overdoing it in the sense of doing too much, too soon, and beyond what is necessary and using inappropriate equipment, especially equipment that is much larger, faster, or more complicated than necessary. It can be difficult to distinguish between over-processing and over-production, because the first often leads to the second. Over-processing is usually associated with going beyond what the customer requires. Examples are reports and presentations that have more information than the audience is looking for, and therefore are difficult to understand and act on. 3. Inventory Whether in the form of work in process (WIP) or finished goods, inventory is considered the great problem in production. With material always available, the focus is taken away from the process, quality, and the rate of work. Inventory thus actually hides problems that exist in the production system. In addition, inventory has an impact on waste that is indirectly caused by having more than needed. Inventory leads to a lack of attention to the process. This means that processes are designed with cycle times well outside of the average. By buffering the process with inventory, the wide variance in cycle times is not noticed until an attempt is made to set up a continuous flow cell or line. 4. Transportation When a facility layout extends over a large area, the movement of inventory from operation to operation becomes necessary. It is thus another result of over-production. It also results from laying out production equipment by function. Functional layout places each type of machine in its own cell for a variety of reasons, mainly to do with the perceived benefits of specialization. 5. Motion Motion is a waste associated with both operators and equipment. In the case of operators, wasted motion includes bending, walking to get or place parts, lifting, and taking more than one step to reach or view machine interfaces. Motion can add significantly to cycle time, and must therefore be considered separately when creating and balancing cells and focused factories. . Scrap Scrap and rework are obviously wasteful. In batch production, scrap is rarely visible, since there is always more material available, and the run can be extended for a short while to produce the required quantity. In a continuous flow system, scrap is a serious problem, since every machine loses a cycle when a piece is rejected. This destroys b alance, and when producing to customer takt, results in a missed shipment. 7. Waiting Waiting takes a number of forms. Operators wait for machines to complete their cycle, or for material to arrive so they can work on it. Machines wait for work, and also for operators to load and unload work pieces or other production material. The kinds of waiting that are common in batch production facilities are different from the waiting that is wasteful in a continuous flow system. 1. 3Characteristics of VSM This is an elements that need an observation and a consideration during applying this VSM: 1. Recognize where environmental impacts occur in a product line. 2. Quantify raw materials used by processes and compare it to materials actually needed to produce the product. . Identify pollution and wastes generated by the production activities. 4. Identify root causes of wastes and inefficiencies. There are a number of common icons used in value stream maps, but icons can also be customized to best serve a value stream map. Icons help distinguish different elements of a product line from another. For example, different arrows should be used to distinguish between product and information movement. The figure 1. 0 be low contains commonly used icons in value stream mapping. Figure 1. 0 1. 4Implementation Once future state map completed a plan to achieve this aim need to be developed, the implementation cannot be done unless there is an actual plan that can vividly visualize the aim of VSM. Without a full blown project implementation with full commitment from everyone in the company you will not reach your future state and gain the identified benefits. The future state map will detail the amount by which your lead times will be reduced, lower stock holdings, potential efficiency improvements and so forth so it should be possible to justify any project financially. Also known as the  Deming Cycle  in many circles, Plan, Do, Check, Act is a simple model for improvement, you make your plan, you implement your plan, you check if you have achieved your stated aims and you then act to make any necessary changes. This cycle is repeated over and over again continually driving improvement. This is how you implement your Value Stream Mapping, it is an iterative process, one that you repeat over and over. You make your initial current state map, plan your improvements, then make your improvements. Then you check your progress by creating a new current state map and plan additional improvements, your value stream mapping should be repeated to ensure continual improvement of your processes. 2. 1 Process of VSM The first action of value stream mapping is to map the existing process which is the result is a Current State Map. Once a valid current state map has been constructed, it is then possible to suggest improvements, with confidence that the results from the proposed system will be quite similar to those of the Future State Map. In this way, the lean initiative moves from solid footing to solid footing. There is no â€Å"leap of faith† or â€Å"trust me† required to convince everyone that there really is a better way to carry out the process. 2. 1. 1Current State When reviewing a product or process line, the first value stream map you develop should record the current state of the line. Remember, conventional value stream mapping tends to focus at a facility-wide level. The current state map should take a snapshot of the current practices and materials usage rates for all processes. A current state map should also record where environmental impacts occur in the product line. The following processes typically have environmental impacts: 1. Metal Fabrication (Milling, Welding, Stamping, and Machining) 2. Parts Washing 3. Surface Cleaning 4. Plastic Forming (Extrusion and Moulding) 5. Surface Coating 6. Chemical Formulation 7. Hazardous Materials Handling 8. Waste Management A current state value stream map should also establish baselines for all inputs and outputs which are presented in Table 2. 1. 1 below. INPUT| OUTPUT| Pounds of materials used| Pounds of solid waste generated| Pounds of hazardous materials used| Pounds of hazardous waste generated| Gallons of water used| Pounds of air pollution emitted| Gallons of water consumed| Gallons of wastewater treated| Watts of energy used| | BTUs of energy used| | Table 2. 1. 1 Other inputs and outputs that conventional value stream maps identify include changeover and cycle time, labour, and rework. Exhibit 2. 0 illustrates a conventional value stream map, shows how to denote process inputs and outputs may exist in the product line. . 1. 2Compare ‘Use’ Vs ‘Need’ In the past, value stream maps would examine the time it takes to produce a product and the proportion of that time that is value added or the time spent actually working on the product. The timeline was a graphic representation that compared the two, but didn’t focus on the resources consumed and waste generated in making the product. A materials line is a variati on of a timeline and can be developed for any type of resource (e. g. , water, energy, total materials, and/or a critical substance used in the product). A materials line, located on the bottom of a value stream map, shows the amount of raw materials used by each process in the value stream and the amount of materials that end up in the product and add value from a customer’s perspective. For example, the materials line illustrated below in figure 2. 0 compares the amount of water used and needed in the milling and parts washing processes in a product line. Figure 2. 1. 2 Once you collect data for the materials line, you may notice large differences between the amount of material used and the amount needed for the product. This exercise can help you target the largest sources of waste for prioritizing improvement efforts. Exhibit 2 presents a value stream map with a materials line that focuses on water usage. You can also create separate maps that address other inputs such as hazardous materials or energy use. 2. 1. 3Visualize an Improved â€Å"Future State† Future state maps are created to show what a product or process line would look like after improvements are made. Future state maps should be drafted following the completion of a current state map. Practitioners play a vital role in developing future state maps, as they can help suppliers identify areas where environmental improvements can be made. More often than not, future state maps look closer at process level improvements. Facilities cannot typically make changes to the order in which processes take place in a product line, but they can implement changes to specific steps of a process. Opportunities for process improvement can be shown on a value stream map with a starburst as illustrated in Exhibit 3. Starbursts can identify processes that need to be examined closer, such as in Exhibit 4. Future state maps should represent the product or process line in a perfect state or fully optimized and highly efficient. It should not be restrained by cost. The future state should include the best available technologies and equipment, and estimated waste reductions should be included where appropriate. For example, if a surface coating line could reduce solvent use by installing a solvent recycler, the future state map should represent that improvement. The materials line that should be included on a current state map can be a good indicator of where improvement opportunities exist. If a process showed a large difference between the amount of a material used and the amount of material needed, practitioners should question why the difference exists. Inefficiencies are the root cause of most wastes. Efficient production lines will have little to no difference between the amount used compared to the amount actually needed to produce the product. Exhibits 5 and 6 show the difference between a current state and a future state parts washing line. Current and future state process maps can be generated for one or many processes that occur in a facilities product line. . 1Benefits and Importance of VSM Value stream mapping is often used at the outset of a lean program to identify the current process within an organization. Strictly speaking Value stream mapping is used to map information and materials through a production process but it can be used for so much more than simply transcribing the process. This is the list of benefits and importance of applying VSM technique : 1. It helps portray the process from the start of the production process to the end. 2. It help finds bottlenecks and find waste within the process. . It’s a group exercise and therefore can involve your workforce as part of your lean improvement program. 4. You can use a completed value stream map as an improvement aide to document transitions to a future state value stream map. 5. It’s an inexpensive tool, basically all you need is a paper and pen. 6. It can be easily critiqued by your workforce to highlight problems that exist within the process. 7. It’s not just for manufacturing, value stream mapping has been used in offices, service industries healthcare etc. 8. It’s easy to understand with a little bit of training on VSM, icons maps are easy to understand conveying powerful process in a simple pictorial fashion. 4. 1Conclusion This study has outlined a decision-making process for the mapping of the value stream or supply chain. This general process is grounded in a contingency approach as it allows the company to choose the most appropriate methods for the particular industry, people and types of problem that exist. The typology is based around the identification of the particular wastes the company or value stream members wish to reduce or eliminate. As such, it allows for an extension of the effective internal waste reduction philosophy pioneered by leading companies such as Toyota. In this case, however, such an approach can be widened and so extended to a value stream setting. This extension capability lies at the heart of creating lean manufacturing, with each of the value stream members working to reduce wasteful activity both inside and between their organizations. 5. 1 Reference 1. http//: EzineArticles. com/225609 2. www. gardinernielsen. com 3. www. en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Value_stream_mapping 4. www. greensuppliers. gov/pubs/VSM. pdf

The Twilight Saga 4: Breaking Dawn 35. Deadline

â€Å"Headed out?† Edward asked, his tone nonchalant. There was a sort of forced composure about his expression. He hugged Renesmee just a little bit tighter to his chest. â€Å"Yes, a few last-minute things†¦,† I responded just as casually. He smiled my favorite smile. â€Å"Hurry back to me.† â€Å"Always.† I took his Volvo again, wondering if he'd read the odometer after my last errand. How much had he pieced together? That I had a secret, absolutely. Would he have deduced the reason why I didn't confide in him? Did he guess that Aro might soon know everything he knew? I thought Edward could have come to that conclusion, which explained why he had demanded no reasons from me. I guessed he was trying not to speculate too much, trying to keep my behavior off his mind. Had he put this together with my odd performance the morning after Alice left, burning my book in the fire? I didn't know if he could have made that leap. It was a dreary afternoon, already dark as dusk. I sped through the gloom, my eyes on the heavy clouds. Would it snow tonight? Enough to layer the ground and create the scene from Alice's vision? Edward estimated that we had about two more days. Then we would set ourselves in the clearing, drawing the Volturi to our chosen place. As I headed through the darkening forest, I considered my last trip to Seattle. I thought I knew Alice's purpose in sending me to the dilapidated drop point where J. Jenks referred his shadier clients. If I'd gone to one of his other, more legitimate offices, would I have ever known what to ask for? if I'd met him as Jason Jenks or Jason Scott, legitimate lawyer, would I ever have unearthed J. Jenks, purveyor of illegal documents? I'd had to go the route that made it clear I was up to no good. That was my clue. It was black when I pulled into the parking lot of the restaurant a few minutes early, ignoring the eager valets by the entrance. I popped in my contacts and then went to wait for J inside the restaurant. Though I was in a hurry to be done with this depressing necessity and back with my family, J seemed careful to keep himself untainted by his baser associations; i had a feeling a handoff in the dark parking lot would offend his sensibilities. I gave the name Jenks at the podium, and the obsequious maftre d' led me upstairs to a small private room with a fire crackling in a stone hearth. He took the calf-length ivory trench coat I'd worn to disguise the fact that I was wearing Alice's idea of appropriate attire, and gasped quietly at my oyster satin cocktail dress. I couldn't help being a little flattered; I still wasn't used to being beautiful to everyone rather than just Edward. The mattre d' stuttered half-formed compliments as he backed unsteadily from the room. I stood by the fire to wait, holding my fingers close to the flame to warm them a little before the inevitable handshake. Not that J wasn't obviously aware that there was something up with the Cullens, but it was still a good habit to practice. For one half second, I wondered what it would feel like to put my hand in the fire. What it would feel like when I burned___ J's entrance distracted my morbidity. The maftre d' took his coat, too, and it was evident that I was not the only one who had dressed up for this meeting. â€Å"I'm so sorry I'm late,† J said as soon as we were alone. â€Å"No, you're exactly on time.† He held out his hand, and as we shook I could feel that his fingers were still quite noticeably warmer than mine. It didn't seem to bother him. â€Å"You look stunning, if I may be so bold, Mrs. Cullen.† â€Å"Thank you, J. Please, call me Bella.† â€Å"I must say, it's a different experience working with you than it is with Mr. Jasper. Much less†¦ unsettling.† He smiled hesitantly. â€Å"Really? I've always found Jasper to have a very soothing presence.† His eyebrows pulled together. â€Å"Is that so?† he murmured politely while clearly still in disagreement. How odd. What had Jasper done to this man? â€Å"Have you known Jasper long?† He sighed, looking uncomfortable. â€Å"I've been working with Mr. Jasper for more than twenty years, and my old partner knew him for fifteen years before that†¦. He never changes.† J cringed delicately. â€Å"Yeah, Jasper's kind of funny that way.† J shook his head as if he could shake away the disturbing thoughts. â€Å"Won't you have a seat, Bella?† â€Å"Actually, I'm in a bit of a hurry. I've got a long drive home.† As I spoke, I took the thick white envelope with his bonus from my bag and handed it to him. â€Å"Oh,† he said, a little catch of disappointment in his voice. He tucked the envelope into an inside pocket of his jacket without bothering to check the amount. â€Å"I was hoping we could speak for just a moment.† â€Å"About?† I asked curiously. â€Å"Well, let me get you your items first. I want to make sure you're satisfied.† He turned, placed his briefcase on the table, and popped the latches. He took out a legal-sized manila envelope. Though I had no idea what I should be looking for, I opened the envelope and gave the contents a cursory glance. J had flipped Jacob's picture and changed the coloring so that it wasn't immediately evident that it was the same picture on both his passport and driver's license. Both looked perfectly sound to me, but that meant little. I glanced at the picture on Vanessa Wolfe's passport for a fraction of a second, and then looked away quickly, a lump rising in my throat. â€Å"Thank you,† I told him. His eyes narrowed slightly, and I felt he was disappointed that my examination was not more thorough. â€Å"I can assure you every piece is perfect. All will pass the most rigorous scrutiny by experts.† â€Å"I'm sure they are. I truly appreciate what you've done for me, J.† â€Å"It's been my pleasure, Bella. In the future, feel free to come to me for anything the Cullen family needs.† He didn't even hint at it really, but this sounded like an invitation for me to take over Jasper's place as liaison. â€Å"There was something you wanted to discuss?† â€Å"Er, yes. It's a bit delicate.. ..† He gestured to the stone hearth with a questioning expression. I sat on the edge of the stone, and he sat beside me. Sweat was dewing up on his forehead again, and he pulled a blue silk handkerchief from his pocket and began mopping. â€Å"You are the sister of Mr. Jasper's wife? Or married to his brother?† he asked. â€Å"Married to his brother,† I clarified, wondering where this was leading. â€Å"You would be Mr. Edward's bride, then?† â€Å"Yes.† He smiled apologetically. â€Å"I've seen all the names many times, you see. My belated congratulations. It's nice that Mr. Edward has found such a lovely partner after all this time.† â€Å"Thank you very much.† He paused, dabbing at the sweat. â€Å"Over the years, you might imagine that I've developed a very healthy level of respect for Mr. Jasper and the entire family.† I nodded cautiously. He took a deep breath and then exhaled without speaking. â€Å"J, please just say whatever you need to.† He took another breath and then mumbled quickly, slurring the words together. â€Å"If you could just assure me that you are not planning to kidnap the little girl from her father, I would sleep better tonight.† â€Å"Oh,† I said, stunned. It took me a minute to understand the erroneous conclusion he'd drawn. â€Å"Oh no. It's nothing like that at all.† I smiled weakly, trying to reassure him. â€Å"I'm simply preparing a safe place for her in case something were to happen to my husband and me.† His eyes narrowed. â€Å"Are you expecting something to happen?† He blushed, then apologized. â€Å"Not that it's any of my business.† I watched the red flush spread behind the delicate membrane of his skin and was glad – as I often was – that I was not the average newborn. J seemed a nice enough man, criminal behavior aside, and it would have been a shame to kill him. â€Å"You never know.† I sighed. He frowned. â€Å"May I wish you the best of luck, then. And please don't be put out with me, my dear, but†¦ if Mr. Jasper should come to me and ask what names I put on these documents †¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Of course you should tell him immediately. I'd like nothing better than to have Mr. Jasper fully aware of our entire transaction.† My transparent sincerity seemed to ease a bit of his tension. â€Å"Very good,† he said. â€Å"And I can't prevail upon you to stay for dinner?† â€Å"I'm sorry, J. I'm short on time at present.† â€Å"Then, again, my best wishes for your health and happiness. Anything at all the Cullen family needs, please don't hesitate to call on me, Bella.† â€Å"Thank you, J.† I left with my contraband, glancing back to see that J was staring after me, his expression a mixture of anxiety and regret. The return trip took me less time. The night was black, and so I turned off my headlights and floored it. When I got back to the house, most of the cars, including Alice's Porsche and my Ferrari, were missing. The traditional vampires were going as far away as possible to satiate their thirst. I tried not to think of their hunting in the night, cringing at the mental picture of their victims. Only Kate and Garrett were in the front room, arguing playfully about the nutritional value of animal blood. I inferred that Garrett had attempted a hunting trip vegetarian-style and found it difficult. Edward must have taken Renesmee home to sleep. Jacob, no doubt, was in the woods close by the cottage. The rest of my family must have been hunting as well. Perhaps they were out with the other Denalis. Which basically gave me the house to myself, and I was quick to take advantage. I could smell that I was the first one to enter Alice and Jasper's room in a long while, maybe the first since the night they'd left us. I rooted silently through their huge closet until I found the right sort of bag. It must have been Alice's; it was a small black leather backpack, the kind that was usually used as a purse, little enough that even Renesmee could carry it without looking out of place. Then I raided their petty cash, taking about twice the yearly income for the average American household. I guessed my theft would be less noticeable here than anywhere else in the house, since this room made everyone sad. The envelope with the fake passports and IDs went into the bag on top of the money. Then I sat on the edge of Alice and Jasper's bed and looked at the pitifully insignificant package that was all I could give my daughter and my best friend to help save their lives. I slumped against the bedpost, feeling helpless. But what else could I do? I sat there for several minutes with my head bowed before the inkling of a good idea came to me. If†¦ If I was to assume that Jacob and Renesmee were going to escape, then that included the assumption that Demetri would be dead. That gave any survivors a little breathing room, Alice and Jasper included. So why couldn't Alice and Jasper help Jacob and Renesmee? If they were reunited, Renesmee would have the best protection imaginable. There was no reason why this couldn't happen, except for the fact that Jake and Renesmee both were blind spots for Alice. How would she begin to look for them? I deliberated for a moment, then left the room, crossing the hall to Carlisle and Esme's suite. As usual, Esme's desk was stacked with plans and blueprints, everything neatly laid out in tall piles. The desk had a slew of pigeonholes above the work surface; in one was a box of stationery. I took a fresh sheet of paper and a pen. Then I stared at the blank ivory page for a full five minutes, concentrating on my decision. Alice might not be able to see Jacob or Renesmee, but she could see me. I visualized her seeing this moment, hoping desperately that she wasn't too busy to pay attention. Slowly, deliberately, I wrote the words RIO DE JANEIRO in all caps across the page. Rio seemed the best place to send them: It was far away from here, Alice and Jasper were already in South America at last report, and it wasn't like our old problems had ceased to exist just because we had worse problems now. There was still the mystery of Renesmee's future, the terror of her racing age. We'd been headed south anyway. Now it would be Jacob's, and hopefully Alice's, job to search for the legends. I bowed my head again against a sudden urge to sob, clenching my teeth together. It was better that Renesmee go on without me. But I already missed her so much I could barely stand it. I took a deep breath and put the note at the bottom of the duffel bag, where Jacob would find it soon enough. I crossed my fingers that – since it was unlikely that his high school offered Portuguese – Jake had at least taken Spanish as his language elective. There was nothing left now but waiting. For two days, Edward and Carlisle stayed in the clearing where Alice had seen the Volturi arrive. It was the same killing field where Victoria's newborns had attacked last summer. I wondered if it felt repetitive to Carlisle, like deja vu. For me, it would be all new. This time Edward and I would stand with our family. We could only imagine that the Volturi would be tracking either Edward or Carlisle. I wondered if it would surprise them that their prey didn't run. Would that make them wary? I couldn't imagine the Volturi ever feeling a need for caution. Though I was – hopefully – invisible to Demetri, I stayed with Edward. Of course. We only had a few hours left to be together. Edward and I had not had a last grand scene of farewell, nor did I plan one. To speak the word was to make it final. It would be the same as typing the words The End on the last page of a manuscript. So we did not say our goodbyes, and we stayed very close to each other, always touching. Whatever end found us, it would not find us separated. We set up a tent for Renesmee a few yards back into the protective forest, and then there was more deja vu as we found ourselves camping in the cold again with Jacob. It was almost impossible to believe how much things had changed since last June. Seven months ago, our triangular relationship seemed impossible, three different kinds of heartbreak that could not be avoided. Now everything was in perfect balance. It seemed hideously ironic that the puzzle pieces would fit together just in time for all of them to be destroyed. It started to snow again the night before New Year's Eve. This time, the tiny flakes did not dissolve into the stony ground of the clearing. While Renesmee and Jacob slept – Jacob snoring so loudly I wondered how Renesmee didn't wake – the snow made first a thin icing over the earth, then built into thicker drifts. By the time the sun rose, the scene from Alice's vision was complete. Edward and I held hands as we stared across the glittering white field, and neither of us spoke. Through the early morning, the others gathered, their eyes bearing mute evidence of their preparations – some light gold, some rich crimson. Soon after we all were together, we could hear the wolves moving in the woods. Jacob emerged from the tent, leaving Renesmee still sleeping, to join them. Edward and Carlisle were arraying the others into a loose formation, our witnesses to the sides like galleries. I watched from a distance, waiting by the tent for Renesmee to wake. When she did, I helped her dress in the clothes I'd carefully picked out two days before. Clothes that looked frilly and feminine but that were actually sturdy enough to not show any wear – even if a person wore them while riding a giant werewolf through a couple of states. Over her jacket I put on the black leather backpack with the documents, the money, the clue, and my love notes for her and Jacob, Charlie and Renee. She was strong enough that it was no burden to her. Her eyes were huge as she read the agony on my face. But she had guessed enough not to ask me what I was doing. â€Å"I love you,† I told her. â€Å"More than anything.† â€Å"I love you, too, Momma,† she answered. She touched the locket at her neck, which now held a tiny photo of her, Edward, and me. â€Å"We'll always be together.† â€Å"In our hearts we'll always be together,† I corrected in a whisper as quiet as a breath. â€Å"But when the time comes today, you have to leave me.† Her eyes widened, and she touched her hand to my cheek. The silent no was louder than if she'd shouted it. I fought to swallow; my throat felt swollen. â€Å"Will you do it for me? Please?† She pressed her fingers harder to my face. Why? â€Å"I can't tell you,† I whispered. â€Å"But you'll understand soon. I promise.'7 In my head, I saw Jacob's face. I nodded, then pulled her fingers away. â€Å"Don't think of it,† I breathed into her ear. â€Å"Don't tell Jacob until I tell you to run, okay?† This she understood. She nodded, too. I took from my pocket one last detail. While packing Renesmee's things, an unexpected sparkle of color had caught my eye. A chance ray of sun through the skylight had hit the jewels on the ancient precious box stuffed high overhead on a shelf in an untouched corner. I considered it for a moment and then shrugged. After putting together Alice's clues, I couldn't hope that the coming confrontation would be resolved peacefully. But why not try to start things out as friendly as possible? I asked myself. What could it hurt? So I guess I must have had some hope left after all – blind, senseless hope – because I'd scaled the shelves and retrieved Aro's wedding present to me. Now I fastened the thick gold rope around my neck and felt the weight of the enormous diamond nestle into the hollow of my throat. â€Å"Pretty,† Renesmee whispered. Then she wrapped her arms like a vise around my neck. I squeezed her against my chest. Interlocked this way, I carried her out of the tent and to the clearing. Edward cocked one eyebrow as I approached, but otherwise did not remark on my accessory or Renesmee's. He just put his arms tight around us both for one long moment and then, with a deep sigh, let us go. I couldn't see a goodbye anywhere in his eyes. Maybe he had more hope for something after this life than he'd let on. We took our place, Renesmee climbing agilely onto my back to leave my hands free. I stood a few feet behind the front line made up by Carlisle, Edward, Emmett, Rosalie, Tanya, Kate, and Eleazar. Close beside me were Benjamin and Zafrina; it was my job to protect them as long as I was able. They were our best offensive weapons. If the Volturi were the ones who could not see, even for a few moments, that would change everything. Zafrina was rigid and fierce, with Senna almost a mirror image at her side. Benjamin sat on the ground, his palms pressed to the dirt, and muttered quietly about fault lines. Last night, he'd strewn piles of boulders in natural-looking, now snow-covered heaps all along the back of the meadow. They weren't enough to injure a vampire, but hopefully enough to distract one. The witnesses clustered to our left and right, some nearer than others – those who had declared themselves were the closest. I noticed Siobhan rubbing her temples, her eyes closed in concentration; was she humoring Carlisle? Trying to visualize a diplomatic resolution? In the woods behind us, the invisible wolves were still and ready; we could only hear their heavy panting, their beating hearts. The clouds rolled in, diffusing the light so that it could have been morning or afternoon. Edward's eyes tightened as he scrutinized the view, and I was sure he was seeing this exact scene for the second time – the first time being Alice's vision. It would look just the same when the Volturi arrived. We only had minutes or seconds left now. All our family and allies braced themselves. From the forest, the huge russet Alpha wolf came forward to stand at my side; it must have been too hard for him to keep his distance from Renesmee when she was in such immediate danger. Renesmee reached out to twine her fingers in thefur over his massive shoulder, and her body relaxed a little bit. She was calmer with Jacob close.I felt a tiny bit better, too. As long Jacob was with Renesmee, she would be all right. Without risking a glance behind, Edward reached back to me. I stretched my arm forward so that I could grip his hand. He squeezed my fingers. Another minute ticked by, and I found myself straining to hear some sound of approach. And then Edward stiffened and hissed low between his clenched teeth. His eyes focused on the forest due north of where we stood. We stared where he did, and waited as the last seconds passed.